A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
